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Evaluation on research of listed IPOs

At the beginning of my investment journey, I read some articles mentioning that listed IPOs are not advised to be held or invested in the first few years in the view of value investing. I was like, Why not? That statement came vague to me at the first glance and I decided to clarify it myself with my own research on a listed IPO, finally China Saite (153) came to my mind.

After the primary review on China Saite, I have discovered a few problems that may be arose during the investigation at listed IPOs:

1. Uncertain use of the proceeds from listing
Though the use of the capital is listed in the prospectus, there is always a chance of going off the track. If the cash spent somewhere else which stockholders are not willing to (E.g. Vision Fame(1315) suddenly planned to develop the coal mining business), it must be harmful to the price movement.

2. Failure of DCF
No mention currently I don't have enough tools and skills to predict the future cash flow of a normal blue chip, the unstable effect of listing towards the factors of generating the predicted value of the company will even hinder the estimating process under DCF.

3. Financial position
It is hard to manipulate those ratios comprising of balance sheet elements such as the current ratio or even the PBR (In reality, part of the cash will be spent immediately), especially when the capital raised from IPO occupying a large proportional of assets afterwards. Even the most recent historical ratio or figure will significantly exaggerate or underestimate the current position of the company.

4. Insufficient of past information and impact from listing
There will be most likely 3 years of data being provided in the prospectus, but bear in mind that these information represented only the business environment of the company before listing. The impact from listing would not be appeared in short either. On the other hand, while the record of the dividend payout is too short to say anything about the sustainability of dividend income from holding the stock, a dividend-lover should especially beware of.

Does it mean that listed IPOs don't have the value to research on? Definitely NO, uncertainty can be tolerated by a comparable potential rewards. It is suggested to rate the stock at a higher risk level than it is apparent to be, lowering the estimated earning figure can also be one of the compromising method.

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (下)

中國賽特(153)具備環保和城鎮化兩種概念，加上業績強勁，預計在未來仍能保持高GPM和NPM，管理層預測來年純利增長將會有所下降，估計與集資後的資金運用有關，加上對其日後業績會有正面作用，故此股值得在中長線留意。

假如盈利預測準確，以今天收市價$1.02與人民幣中間價計及，EPS為$21.28分，其預測市盈為4.79倍，相比內地鋼結構龍頭精工鋼構(SHA:600496) 的PE為18.89，拆讓差不多75%，但鑑於其為內地公司而且是半新股，其毛利率亦較行業平均為高，以競爭激烈的行業來說，其毛利率應貼近平均值才對，因此業績可能注了水份，故評為高風險類別。

賽特短線受制於下降軌道，14RSI為 44.84，待升穿RSI(SMA) 46.63後，可視為轉勢跡象，配合成交量升穿通道頂部便可伺機買入。

source: 港股360

利申: 本人持有以上股票，大約佔portfolio 5% ，平均買入價$1.01，不排除未來或會增持，暫以中期持有為目標，不設目標價(老實說是在收集並等待業績)，止蝕價為$0.8。

免責聲明: 投資涉及風險, 股價可升可跌, 此文章並不構成買賣之邀請或要約。

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (中)

首先看中國賽特(0153)，該公司為江蘇省其中一家綜合性鋼結構及預製構件建築解決方案服務供應商，經營歷史為15年，以2012年收益來計算，賽特是江蘇省第三大鋼結構建築服務供應商及第二大預製構件建築服務供應商。
根據Ipsos報告，在2012年，中國鋼結構建築的產值約人民幣298,200,000,000元，佔國內建築總產值約2.2%，而賽特佔當中的0.3%；中國預製構件建築產值約人民幣16,700,000,000元，佔國內建築總產值約0.12%，而賽特佔當中的1.4%。經計算下，賽特業務佔中國建築市場0.828%，以中小型公司來說算是不錯。

業務一：鋼結構項目

鋼結構是以鋼材和混凝土為材料的建築結構，具備高強重比、耐用性、質輕、設計靈活、抗震性強、建造工期短、污染度低並可循環利用的特點。以2010年度開始計算至06/2013(半年度)，賽特的鋼結構收益錄得不俗的升幅，在招股後得到的3.838億港元當中，大約23.8%(約90,000,000港元) 會投放在鋼結構擴充產能和添置器材等，預期其效益將不會於2013年的收益中反映出來，而且反而為毛利率帶來壓力。

受惠國策

根據《建築業“十二五”發展規劃》，國家將推進建築業轉變發展方式，加大基礎設施建築投入力度，建築鋼結構的運用將向能源、高層住宅、基礎設施等領域發展，公路、鐵路橋樑建設中鋼結構比重將不斷上升，城市地鐵和輕軌工程、立交橋、高架橋等相關工程都將更多的採用鋼結構，政策的支持和引導為鋼結構行業發展帶來新機遇。國家要求至2015年，鋼結構佔鋼總產量的比例由4.5%上升至10%，根據鋼結構建築的消耗量計，2013年至2016年，鋼結構行業的複合年增長率將達至約17.3%，下圖是Ipsos對江蘇省鋼結構的產量預測，可看見鋼結構的市場將會越來越大，而賽特定能從中受惠。

原材料價格趨穩

鋼結構所用的主要原材料為鋼材及混凝土，他們分別約佔總生產成本的65%及6.5%，鋼材由於產能過剩的問題，使他的作價反覆下跌，本年下旬更曾低見每噸約人民幣3,628元。而混凝土的價格則比較穩定地輕微上升，預期亦不會對賽特的成本帶來太大壓力。

業務二：預制構件

賽特從2011年初才涉足預制構件業務，在短短兩年間已經成為江蘇省第二大預製構件建築服務供應商，可見公司潛力不容小覷，其收益增長錄得大幅度上升，集資後的55%資金(約2.1億港元)會投資在預制構件業務中，當中的33.8%將會用於購置他們目前的預製構件建築車間所處的現有廠房及辦公室(租期將於2013年12月31日屆滿)，這可使其成本立於可控制的範圍，對賽特往後的業績會有很大的幫助。

在未來，賽特會加重在預制構件項目上的投資，其毛利率一直徘徊在39-42%的高水平，相對於鋼結構業務的24-28%毛利率，大力增加預制構件的產能絕對會為賽特帶來長遠的益處，以現在賽特的業務分佈來看，預期其預制構件業務將會在三年後趕上其鋼結構業務。

公共項目增加

賽特與國家保持良好的合作關係，於2013年6月半年期間，公共結構項目佔他們收益的62.6%，比以往平均約30%增加了不少，更成為今年的主要項目，他們參與的公共結構項目主要是由中國政府投資或運營的項目，包括了城鎮保障性安居、橋樑、政府辦公樓、體育場館、公共交通設施及體育中心等。由於即使在經濟不景的情況下，公共項目投資仍不太受影響，加上中國政府將會作為該等項目的業主或客戶，所以這些項目的信貸風險也很低，以上點點也證明了政府對賽特的信任。而公共結構項目的毛利率往往也會比非公共結構項目高大約5-10%不等，維持大比率的公共結構項目必定會對他們的業績有良好影響。

風險因素

由於賽特的業務集中在以江蘇為首的中國地區，中國的經濟或多或少也會影響其盈利，業務地區過份集中大大增加其內在風險。另外鋼結構的業務來源也是不穩定，因為其項目是以競投方式獲得，如果未能中標便會減少其收入，相反地，預制構件的項目是來自直接轉介承接，無須經過競標程序，因此這方面的風險是比較少。

(待續)

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (上)

當初留意中國賽特(153), 是因為看見近期建築股的IPO表現不俗, 以內地城鎮化概念為基礎,  再加上她的高純利率和低負債, 令筆者對她產生濃厚興趣。

上市日期	上市編號	公司名稱	招股價	現價	累積表現
1/11/2013	153	中國賽特	1.03	1.09	5.83%
16/10/2013	1246	毅信控股	0.93	1.12	20.43%
9/8/2013	1271	佳明集團控股	1.11	2.66	139.64%
18/10/2012	1240	新利控股	0.88	2.5	184.09%
6/7/2012	2068	中鋁國際	3.93	3.2	-18.58%
18/1/2012	1315	允升國際	1.2	2.3	91.67%

從上表看到, 除中鋁(2068)的累積表現是負數外, 其餘的都錄得不錯的升幅, 當中佳明(1271)及新利(1240) 均取得一倍以上的累積表現, 這都令筆者憧憬著賽特和毅信(1246) 也可以翻一翻。當然, 以上並無涉及基本分析, 而且只有賽特是把業務集中在內地, 我會在下一篇再詳細一點檢視這股。

近況(2)

緊隨住三中全會既完結, 我既考試亦暫告一段落, 黎緊6月先會有下一場! 所以會有兩至三個月空檔期比我努力分析市場同埋整理投資組合, 當然仲有搵工, 有預感應該會好快搵到, 應該...

China's investment opportunities and risks(27/10/2013)

China had become more and more influencing in global economics through her announcement of fiscal policy, 5-year plan or even the corporate earnings reports. People around the world started to put an eye on the development of China and admitted its position as the second large economic unit in the world. The Chinese government started to open its market to the world step by step. The RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the increase in the amounts of RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII), and the launch of Shanghai pilot free trade zone, all of these raised the degree of openness of RMB assets to foreign investors.

Though many people try to make profit by investing in the China’s equity market, however, the majority are disappointed by the poor performance these years. There is no doubt that China is still under drastic development and possesses a huge upside potential. But bear in mind that before stepping into any emerging countries, you have to concern about the risks pairing with the investment opportunities.

SLOWER GDP GROWTH

In the view of macroeconomics, the Gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reaching a new high every financial year, which was compatible with its condition as a developing country.

Chart 1: The total GDP and GDP growth of China

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China

Data as of 22/02/2013

In Chart 1, however, the GDP growth rate was under a downtrend since 2010 and dropped to 7.8% in 2012. It was lower than the forecast of 8% GDP growth for 2012.

Moreover, the GDP growth target had been lowered from 7.5% (11^th 5-year plan) to 7% (12^th 5-year plan) for 2011 to 2015. It showed that the China government also agreed that the economics growth cannot be sustained at a high level forever. Nonetheless, the growth of China was still indispensable.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE SURPLUS VS APPRECIATION

Although the labor cost of China was increasing from time to time, it was still relatively low comparing with the other developing countries such as India. Thus, the products from China were more cost-competitive and Chart 2 shows that China was enjoying a trade surplus in 2013. This situation existed decades ago and it is believed that it will continue in the future.

Chart 2: Export, Import and trade surplus of China for the year 2013

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China

Data as of 15/10/2013

Although China adopted a monetary policy that protected RMB from the attack of foreign capital by holding large amount of foreign reserve and limiting the openness of RMB, the continuous trade surplus had provided an enormous pressure on the appreciation of RMB. In chart 3, we can find out that right after the RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the RMB started to appreciate drastically until 2007. From the middle of 2010, RMB appreciated steadily towards the day high of 6.082 (USD/CNY) in 2013. The appreciation seemed to be continued in long term and it would somehow hurt the export of China and worsen the China economy. Investors and exporters should hedge against the currency risks. Leaving the risk exploit would probably bring huge loss to their investment.

Chart 3: Trend of USD/CNY from 2005 - 2013

Did it mean that the appreciation bring no benefit to investor in China? The answer was definitely NOT! Assets such as cash, properties, stocks and bonds which were settled and accounted in RMB would enjoy the appreciation in their values with the RMB. For example, one who owned the RMB term deposit would be benefited from both the interest incurred and the appreciation in the currency. Made your investment decision wisely which you could turn a risk into profit.

RENEWABLE RESOURCES AND GREEN PRODUCTS

Despite the rapid growth of China, she had become the largest polluter in the world. Air pollution index in Beijing was always extremely high. There was only about 50 meters of vision in some serious cases. Heavy metal pollutants from industries also polluted the water and harmed the life of citizens. Pollution would hurt the productivity of workers and thus the GDP of a region. We needed to put an eye on the policy of China government towards pollution problem. If they will not do any intervention, the snowball effect must be triggered and definitely a risk for investors. Nevertheless, the China government was acknowledged the seriousness of the problem and raised a few policies and solutions in the 12^th five year plan such as the subsidies of renewable energy resources, pursued the use of environmental product and educated people about recycling. These gave a great opportunity for those green energy industry and environmental industry in the foreseeable future.

Counterfeit and unethical goods

Greater China was infamous for her counterfeit products. In every category of goods, it was not hard to find a counterfeit from the famous foreign brands. It had been a big problem for those foreign producers for many years. They had given hard pressure to the Chinese Government to handle the issues of counterfeit. Yet, some foreign countries may try to boycott products from China in the future which would harm the China manufacturing industry. Moreover, China’s tourism and manufacturing industry were also threatened by the unscrupulous manufacturers who were producing harmful and toxic food. If these problems didn’t rectify as soon as possible, it would be too risky to invest or even live in a country that makes up of low quality food and products.

Opportunities with risks

While opportunity is invulnerable to be pair up with risk, no matter how you manage your own portfolio, it is hard to make one with zero risk. Currently, the China market is full of risks. If you make thorough investment planning and appropriate research, these risks may one day turning to be your opportunities. Giving the undetermined potential of its market in the future, the Great China is always profitable and worthy to invest.