2014年1月8日 星期三

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (中)

首先看中國賽特(0153),該公司為江蘇省其中一家綜合性鋼結構及預製構件建築解決方案服務供應商,經營歷史為15年,以2012年收益來計算,賽特是江蘇省第三大鋼結構建築服務供應商及第二大預製構件建築服務供應商。
根據Ipsos報告,在2012年,中國鋼結構建築的產值約人民幣298,200,000,000元,佔國內建築總產值約2.2%,而賽特佔當中的0.3%;中國預製構件建築產值約人民幣16,700,000,000元,佔國內建築總產值約0.12%,而賽特佔當中的1.4%。經計算下,賽特業務佔中國建築市場0.828%,以中小型公司來說算是不錯。

業務一:鋼結構項目

鋼結構是以鋼材和混凝土為材料的建築結構,具備高強重比、耐用性、質輕、設計靈活、抗震性強、建造工期短、污染度低並可循環利用的特點。以2010年度開始計算至06/2013(半年度),賽特的鋼結構收益錄得不俗的升幅,在招股後得到的3.838億港元當中,大約23.8%(約90,000,000港元) 會投放在鋼結構擴充產能和添置器材等,預期其效益將不會於2013年的收益中反映出來,而且反而為毛利率帶來壓力。

受惠國策

根據《建築業“十二五”發展規劃》,國家將推進建築業轉變發展方式,加大基礎設施建築投入力度,建築鋼結構的運用將向能源、高層住宅、基礎設施等領域發展,公路、鐵路橋樑建設中鋼結構比重將不斷上升,城市地鐵和輕軌工程、立交橋、高架橋等相關工程都將更多的採用鋼結構,政策的支持和引導為鋼結構行業發展帶來新機遇。國家要求至2015年,鋼結構佔鋼總產量的比例由4.5%上升至10%,根據鋼結構建築的消耗量計,2013年至2016年,鋼結構行業的複合年增長率將達至約17.3%,下圖是Ipsos對江蘇省鋼結構的產量預測,可看見鋼結構的市場將會越來越大,而賽特定能從中受惠。

原材料價格趨穩

鋼結構所用的主要原材料為鋼材及混凝土,他們分別約佔總生產成本的65%及6.5%,鋼材由於產能過剩的問題,使他的作價反覆下跌,本年下旬更曾低見每噸約人民幣3,628元。而混凝土的價格則比較穩定地輕微上升,預期亦不會對賽特的成本帶來太大壓力。

業務二:預制構件

賽特從2011年初才涉足預制構件業務,在短短兩年間已經成為江蘇省第二大預製構件建築服務供應商,可見公司潛力不容小覷,其收益增長錄得大幅度上升,集資後的55%資金(約2.1億港元)會投資在預制構件業務中,當中的33.8%將會用於購置他們目前的預製構件建築車間所處的現有廠房及辦公室(租期將於2013年12月31日屆滿),這可使其成本立於可控制的範圍,對賽特往後的業績會有很大的幫助。

在未來,賽特會加重在預制構件項目上的投資,其毛利率一直徘徊在39-42%的高水平,相對於鋼結構業務的24-28%毛利率,大力增加預制構件的產能絕對會為賽特帶來長遠的益處,以現在賽特的業務分佈來看,預期其預制構件業務將會在三年後趕上其鋼結構業務。



公共項目增加

賽特與國家保持良好的合作關係,於2013年6月半年期間,公共結構項目佔他們收益的62.6%,比以往平均約30%增加了不少,更成為今年的主要項目,他們參與的公共結構項目主要是由中國政府投資或運營的項目,包括了城鎮保障性安居、橋樑、政府辦公樓、體育場館、公共交通設施及體育中心等。由於即使在經濟不景的情況下,公共項目投資仍不太受影響,加上中國政府將會作為該等項目的業主或客戶,所以這些項目的信貸風險也很低,以上點點也證明了政府對賽特的信任。而公共結構項目的毛利率往往也會比非公共結構項目高大約5-10%不等,維持大比率的公共結構項目必定會對他們的業績有良好影響。

風險因素

由於賽特的業務集中在以江蘇為首的中國地區,中國的經濟或多或少也會影響其盈利,業務地區過份集中大大增加其內在風險。另外鋼結構的業務來源也是不穩定,因為其項目是以競投方式獲得,如果未能中標便會減少其收入,相反地,預制構件的項目是來自直接轉介承接,無須經過競標程序,因此這方面的風險是比較少。

(待續)








2013年12月18日 星期三

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (上)

當初留意中國賽特(153), 是因為看見近期建築股的IPO表現不俗, 以內地城鎮化概念為基礎,  再加上她的高純利率和低負債, 令筆者對她產生濃厚興趣。

上市日期 上市編號 公司名稱 招股價 現價 累積表現
1/11/2013 153 中國賽特 1.03 1.09 5.83%
16/10/2013 1246 毅信控股 0.93 1.12 20.43%
9/8/2013 1271 佳明集團控股 1.11 2.66 139.64%
18/10/2012 1240 新利控股 0.88 2.5 184.09%
6/7/2012 2068 中鋁國際 3.93 3.2 -18.58%
18/1/2012 1315 允升國際 1.2 2.3 91.67%

從上表看到, 除中鋁(2068)的累積表現是負數外, 其餘的都錄得不錯的升幅, 當中佳明(1271)及新利(1240) 均取得一倍以上的累積表現, 這都令筆者憧憬著賽特和毅信(1246) 也可以翻一翻。當然, 以上並無涉及基本分析, 而且只有賽特是把業務集中在內地, 我會在下一篇再詳細一點檢視這股。

2013年11月21日 星期四

近況(2)

緊隨住三中全會既完結, 我既考試亦暫告一段落, 黎緊6月先會有下一場! 所以會有兩至三個月空檔期比我努力分析市場同埋整理投資組合, 當然仲有搵工, 有預感應該會好快搵到, 應該...

2013年10月28日 星期一

China's investment opportunities and risks(27/10/2013)

China had become more and more influencing in global economics through her announcement of fiscal policy, 5-year plan or even the corporate earnings reports. People around the world started to put an eye on the development of China and admitted its position as the second large economic unit in the world. The Chinese government started to open its market to the world step by step. The RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the increase in the amounts of RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII), and the launch of Shanghai pilot free trade zone, all of these raised the degree of openness of RMB assets to foreign investors.

Though many people try to make profit by investing in the China’s equity market, however, the majority are disappointed by the poor performance these years. There is no doubt that China is still under drastic development and possesses a huge upside potential. But bear in mind that before stepping into any emerging countries, you have to concern about the risks pairing with the investment opportunities.

SLOWER GDP GROWTH

In the view of macroeconomics, the Gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reaching a new high every financial year, which was compatible with its condition as a developing country.

Chart 1: The total GDP and GDP growth of China

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China
Data as of 22/02/2013

In Chart 1, however, the GDP growth rate was under a downtrend since 2010 and dropped to 7.8% in 2012. It was lower than the forecast of 8% GDP growth for 2012.
Moreover, the GDP growth target had been lowered from 7.5% (11th 5-year plan) to 7% (12th 5-year plan) for 2011 to 2015. It showed that the China government also agreed that the economics growth cannot be sustained at a high level forever. Nonetheless, the growth of China was still indispensable.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE SURPLUS VS APPRECIATION

Although the labor cost of China was increasing from time to time, it was still relatively low comparing with the other developing countries such as India. Thus, the products from China were more cost-competitive and Chart 2 shows that China was enjoying a trade surplus in 2013. This situation existed decades ago and it is believed that it will continue in the future.

Chart 2: Export, Import and trade surplus of China for the year 2013


Source: National bureau of Statistics of China
Data as of 15/10/2013

Although China adopted a monetary policy that protected RMB from the attack of foreign capital by holding large amount of foreign reserve and limiting the openness of RMB, the continuous trade surplus had provided an enormous pressure on the appreciation of RMB. In chart 3, we can find out that right after the RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the RMB started to appreciate drastically until 2007. From the middle of 2010, RMB appreciated steadily towards the day high of 6.082 (USD/CNY) in 2013. The appreciation seemed to be continued in long term and it would somehow hurt the export of China and worsen the China economy. Investors and exporters should hedge against the currency risks. Leaving the risk exploit would probably bring huge loss to their investment.



Chart 3: Trend of USD/CNY from 2005 - 2013
Did it mean that the appreciation bring no benefit to investor in China? The answer was definitely NOT! Assets such as cash, properties, stocks and bonds which were settled and accounted in RMB would enjoy the appreciation in their values with the RMB. For example, one who owned the RMB term deposit would be benefited from both the interest incurred and the appreciation in the currency. Made your investment decision wisely which you could turn a risk into profit.

RENEWABLE RESOURCES AND GREEN PRODUCTS

Despite the rapid growth of China, she had become the largest polluter in the world. Air pollution index in Beijing was always extremely high. There was only about 50 meters of vision in some serious cases. Heavy metal pollutants from industries also polluted the water and harmed the life of citizens. Pollution would hurt the productivity of workers and thus the GDP of a region. We needed to put an eye on the policy of China government towards pollution problem. If they will not do any intervention, the snowball effect must be triggered and definitely a risk for investors. Nevertheless, the China government was acknowledged the seriousness of the problem and raised a few policies and solutions in the 12th five year plan such as the subsidies of renewable energy resources, pursued the use of environmental product and educated people about recycling. These gave a great opportunity for those green energy industry and environmental industry in the foreseeable future.

Counterfeit and unethical goods

Greater China was infamous for her counterfeit products. In every category of goods, it was not hard to find a counterfeit from the famous foreign brands. It had been a big problem for those foreign producers for many years. They had given hard pressure to the Chinese Government to handle the issues of counterfeit. Yet, some foreign countries may try to boycott products from China in the future which would harm the China manufacturing industry. Moreover, China’s tourism and manufacturing industry were also threatened by the unscrupulous manufacturers who were producing harmful and toxic food. If these problems didn’t rectify as soon as possible, it would be too risky to invest or even live in a country that makes up of low quality food and products.

Opportunities with risks

While opportunity is invulnerable to be pair up with risk, no matter how you manage your own portfolio, it is hard to make one with zero risk. Currently, the China market is full of risks. If you make thorough investment planning and appropriate research, these risks may one day turning to be your opportunities. Giving the undetermined potential of its market in the future, the Great China is always profitable and worthy to invest.

2013年9月30日 星期一

近況(1)

黎緊都要忙於考試同埋搵工, 所以都好少留意股票市場, 不過都會睇多d新聞, update自己, 讓自己不會脫節, 這是一個投資者最基本的行為......

2013年7月25日 星期四

知恥近乎勇

中學時期偶然學到嘅一種態度:「冇期望就冇失望」,在我過往十多年人生中一直相信這是自己處事最佳的態度,既然對自己嘅負出並無期望,即使事情落空了,又怎會對結果失望,內心好像也會因此好過點。

然而,最近這想法徹底改變了。

我明白保守一點的好處,但沒期望的話也未免太悲觀,那有人會甘願讓自己的努力付之流水,說自己甚麼不在乎的沒期望的其實都只是自欺欺人,以我為例,就已經騙了自己十多年。

說到尾,也是因為害怕失敗的心作祟,害怕失敗令對你有期望的人失望,害怕失敗後發覺自己負出很多卻一無所獲,害怕自己從此一蹶不振。

但是我學會了,失敗根本不可怕(我明白做起來是有難道的....),正如老人常言道:「可怕的不是失敗,而是失敗了卻無法再站起來。」

Come on James!不要再逃避了,好好的面對失敗,它給你實戰的經驗,亦給你檢視自己的機會,投資如是,做人也是,就是那麼簡單,知恥近乎勇!


2013年7月8日 星期一

投資與投機的迷思

作為一個自稱「投資者」嘅人, 一直希望自己同「投機」這二字盡量隔離, 不過投資股海一年, 發覺自己多多少少其實重複又重複咁投機, 哈哈。

根據MBA智庫百科對投資同投機二詞嘅定義:

投資(Investment)- 財產的累積以求在未來得到收益, 相較於投機而言,投資的時間段更長一些,更趨向是為了在未來一定時間段內獲得某種比較持續穩定的現金流收益,是未來收益的累積。

投機(speculative/speculation) - 投機不是要儘量減少損失,而是要最大限度地追求利潤。

把字紅起來, 原因是本人認為重點就在時間的長短, 在我心目中, 投資就是「利用某個獲利率大於50%的方法, 以長線達到正回報」, 任何不能滿足這條件的方法, 我也認為是投機。比方說是賭大小, 因為圍骰的關係, 開大或開小的或然率是48.61% ( <50%), 長遠來說, 假設每次投注金額一樣, 下注者嘅期望回報係負數。

要知道high return 背後總會帶來high risk, 投機就是這樣, 所以本人一直以自己比較年青為借口, 適量的進行投機, 以求回報最大化! 不過往往也會因此失利! 但我不是完全否定投機在我眼中是不應涉足的, 只是經過一年的投資生涯, 我明白到投機不能是你portfolio的主力, 隨著年齡, 家庭, 市場等不同因素的變化, 投資與投機的程度也要達到適到的平衡。

至於那個「利用某個獲利率大於50%的方法, 以長線達到正回報」的方法, 本人仍在尋覓中, 不過我相信三年內就可以完全整理好自己嘅投資理念, 夠長遠吧!