China Saite Group Company Limited (153:HK) Overview

China Saite Group Company Limited (153:HK) announced its annual result on 17th of March, some of the highlights and summary of the performance are listed below:

	2012	2013
GPM	32.08%	33.71%
NPM	19.45%	20.60%
ROE	61.88%	38.53%
EPS(RMB)	0.1699	0.2321
Proposed Payout Ratio	0.00%	29.93%
PE	5.15	3.67
PB	2.26	1.28
NAVPS	0.48	0.85
Debt to Equity	0.39	0.20
Current Ratio	4.08	8.33

• Revenue from steel structure projects increased 4.75% YoY to RMB851 million.
• Revenue from prefabricated construction projects increased 144.59% YoY to RMB 576 million. Showing a rally growth in this market in Jiangsu Province.
• Total revenue increased 36.17% YoY. (2012 increased by 62.04%)
• GPM of the two main businesses remained steady.
• The amount of new contracts in 2013 declined by approximately 5.6% YoY to approximately RMB1,373.4 million with the number of new contracts decreased from 28 to 25.
• As at 31 December 2013, the net proceeds of the Global Offering has not been utilized. It is also the main factor that results in the decline of ROE from 61.88% to 38.53%.
• Past due trade receivables increased by 415.23% to RMB24.8 million, which occupied 2.09% of total current assets. The control of receivables is still acceptable.

The implementation of the PRC 12th Five-Year Plan and the urbanization in the PRC has created a huge market for steel structure construction. The Government has stated to invest approximately RMB6.2 trillion in transportation infrastructures from 2011 to 2015, steel structure will be benefited from the expansion. Urbanization also produces a surge of construction of social security housings for the sake of people’s livelihood, which will bring huge demand for prefabricated construction. As required by the policies of the PRC Government, the technology of prefabricated construction must be applied to 30% of social security housings by the end of 2016 on a nationwide scale.

According to the Ipsos report in the prospectus, the growth rate of the prefabricated construction market in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2016 will be 110.7%p.a., while the growth rate of steel structure market will be 17.6%p.a.. Given the low cap size of China Saite, the growth rate of its earning will be estimated at 13.56%, assume a PEG of 0.5, the target price of China Saite will be HKD2.01 in medium term.



Disclosure of interest: I personally own the stock of China Saite(153:HK).

業績公布!

金山軟件(03888.HK) 公布2013年止年度，收益21.73億人民幣(下同)，按年增加54%。錄得純利增長55%至6.71億元，每股盈利58.12分。末期息12港仙，增派1港仙。單計第四季，收益6.69億元，按季上升21%，按年上升55%。純利1.66億元，按季及按年分別增長2%及33%。

中國賽特(00153.HK) 公布截至去年底全年業績，期內收益按年升36.2%至14.27億元人民幣(下同)；純利升44.3%至2.94億元；每股盈利23.21分，2012年為16.99分；派末期息5.5分。於去年公司訂立的新合同總額為13.73億元，按年跌5.6%，新合同數量由2012年的28個跌至25個；已簽合同的項目的合同額均值升至5,500萬元。

阿思達克財經新聞

勝讀十年書

昨天有幸得高人提點，好像為眼前朦朧道路添上一盞提燈。似是恍然大悟，明白天外有天，不加把勁不行！

1) 重新整理投資組合
2) Interview
3) 溫書

另外，賽特(153)終於也要公布業績了，是龍是蟲請拭目以待。
(詳見: http://www.chinasaite.com.cn/attachment/20140305071702001850087_en.pdf)

體彩與世杯

2014巴西世界杯令彩票股曾經炒上一段時間，到現在已經回落了一個月上下，炒作空間還在嗎？

國家財政部公布，內地去年彩票銷售按年上升18%至3093.25億元RMB。路透早前報道，按中國2012年彩票銷售約230億美元，與美國同期銷售710億美元對比，預計中國彩票市場未來3年增長20%，遠超美國同期料僅個位數的增長，而且中國人均收入持續增加，中國有望在兩年內成為全球第一銷量彩票市場。

中國彩票市場有兩類彩票，分別是中國福利彩票及中國體育彩票。顯而易見，與世界杯有關的就是體育彩票，而內地2013年體育彩票銷量則升逾20%並突破千三億人民幣的新高紀錄。

在香港上市公司中，以下三隻是有較多的體彩概念：
－第一視頻 (00082.HK)
－御泰中彩控股 (00555.HK)

－亞博科技控股 (08279.HK)

以下是他們在世界杯期內的股價表現(adjusted price):

表內主要比較了該股票在分組賽一年前（相關新聞炒作開始出現）、抽籤日（炒作再次出現）、分組賽開始與完結、及年終（世界杯帶來的收入總結）的價格，可以看到他們的走勢是極為波動的，但整體而言賺的機會是比蝕的多，27期的資料中，賺的佔了16，蝕的只是8，而且賺的幅度平均比蝕的更高。數據找了出來，怎樣利用還是另一門學問，例如假設在分組賽一年前買下這些股票，並持有至年終，只有2010年南非世界盃的亞博虧本，其他都獲得可觀利潤。當然，餘下的數據我會繼續更新的。

第一視頻旗下的中國足彩網富有體彩概念，但今年發出盈警，集團的電信媒體業務是虧損主要來源，現價1.20，比年初高位回來不少，相信多少也反映了盈警的影響。

御泰為三隻中最為安全，其營業額和盈利均見穩步上揚，業務亦較第一視頻集中，現價1.13計及PE為11.41，PB為1.71。

基於亞博是創業板的一員，其高波動性及高風險應要多加小心。另外值得注意，近幾年來集團一直處於虧損狀態，雖然不斷收窄，但以現價1.94(PB為7)來看，RSI已經到達83.2的超買區，短線下行風險比較大，宜待回調後才考慮買入。

馬年進步!

剛剛完成台灣之旅回港，整頓心情以後便要更加努力了！期望在馬年可以achieve more！

最近大市受走資同內地ＰＭＩ等因素影響而回落，相信退市帶黎既影響將會繼續成為大户向下炒作的理由，中期走勢絕對不容樂觀，黎緊業績期更加係焦點所在，預期上落市格局會在未來一個月持續，短線來看hsi有反彈的條件，RSI在2月5號低見24超賣後轉升，最後，本人也會盡量在強勢版塊尋寶，加油加油！

Evaluation on research of listed IPOs

At the beginning of my investment journey, I read some articles mentioning that listed IPOs are not advised to be held or invested in the first few years in the view of value investing. I was like, Why not? That statement came vague to me at the first glance and I decided to clarify it myself with my own research on a listed IPO, finally China Saite (153) came to my mind.

After the primary review on China Saite, I have discovered a few problems that may be arose during the investigation at listed IPOs:

1. Uncertain use of the proceeds from listing
Though the use of the capital is listed in the prospectus, there is always a chance of going off the track. If the cash spent somewhere else which stockholders are not willing to (E.g. Vision Fame(1315) suddenly planned to develop the coal mining business), it must be harmful to the price movement.

2. Failure of DCF
No mention currently I don't have enough tools and skills to predict the future cash flow of a normal blue chip, the unstable effect of listing towards the factors of generating the predicted value of the company will even hinder the estimating process under DCF.

3. Financial position
It is hard to manipulate those ratios comprising of balance sheet elements such as the current ratio or even the PBR (In reality, part of the cash will be spent immediately), especially when the capital raised from IPO occupying a large proportional of assets afterwards. Even the most recent historical ratio or figure will significantly exaggerate or underestimate the current position of the company.

4. Insufficient of past information and impact from listing
There will be most likely 3 years of data being provided in the prospectus, but bear in mind that these information represented only the business environment of the company before listing. The impact from listing would not be appeared in short either. On the other hand, while the record of the dividend payout is too short to say anything about the sustainability of dividend income from holding the stock, a dividend-lover should especially beware of.

Does it mean that listed IPOs don't have the value to research on? Definitely NO, uncertainty can be tolerated by a comparable potential rewards. It is suggested to rate the stock at a higher risk level than it is apparent to be, lowering the estimated earning figure can also be one of the compromising method.

0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (下)

中國賽特(153)具備環保和城鎮化兩種概念，加上業績強勁，預計在未來仍能保持高GPM和NPM，管理層預測來年純利增長將會有所下降，估計與集資後的資金運用有關，加上對其日後業績會有正面作用，故此股值得在中長線留意。

假如盈利預測準確，以今天收市價$1.02與人民幣中間價計及，EPS為$21.28分，其預測市盈為4.79倍，相比內地鋼結構龍頭精工鋼構(SHA:600496) 的PE為18.89，拆讓差不多75%，但鑑於其為內地公司而且是半新股，其毛利率亦較行業平均為高，以競爭激烈的行業來說，其毛利率應貼近平均值才對，因此業績可能注了水份，故評為高風險類別。

賽特短線受制於下降軌道，14RSI為 44.84，待升穿RSI(SMA) 46.63後，可視為轉勢跡象，配合成交量升穿通道頂部便可伺機買入。

source: 港股360

利申: 本人持有以上股票，大約佔portfolio 5% ，平均買入價$1.01，不排除未來或會增持，暫以中期持有為目標，不設目標價(老實說是在收集並等待業績)，止蝕價為$0.8。

免責聲明: 投資涉及風險, 股價可升可跌, 此文章並不構成買賣之邀請或要約。