0153:HK 中國賽特 China Saite (上)

當初留意中國賽特(153), 是因為看見近期建築股的IPO表現不俗, 以內地城鎮化概念為基礎,  再加上她的高純利率和低負債, 令筆者對她產生濃厚興趣。

上市日期	上市編號	公司名稱	招股價	現價	累積表現
1/11/2013	153	中國賽特	1.03	1.09	5.83%
16/10/2013	1246	毅信控股	0.93	1.12	20.43%
9/8/2013	1271	佳明集團控股	1.11	2.66	139.64%
18/10/2012	1240	新利控股	0.88	2.5	184.09%
6/7/2012	2068	中鋁國際	3.93	3.2	-18.58%
18/1/2012	1315	允升國際	1.2	2.3	91.67%

從上表看到, 除中鋁(2068)的累積表現是負數外, 其餘的都錄得不錯的升幅, 當中佳明(1271)及新利(1240) 均取得一倍以上的累積表現, 這都令筆者憧憬著賽特和毅信(1246) 也可以翻一翻。當然, 以上並無涉及基本分析, 而且只有賽特是把業務集中在內地, 我會在下一篇再詳細一點檢視這股。

近況(2)

緊隨住三中全會既完結, 我既考試亦暫告一段落, 黎緊6月先會有下一場! 所以會有兩至三個月空檔期比我努力分析市場同埋整理投資組合, 當然仲有搵工, 有預感應該會好快搵到, 應該...

China's investment opportunities and risks(27/10/2013)

China had become more and more influencing in global economics through her announcement of fiscal policy, 5-year plan or even the corporate earnings reports. People around the world started to put an eye on the development of China and admitted its position as the second large economic unit in the world. The Chinese government started to open its market to the world step by step. The RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the increase in the amounts of RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII), and the launch of Shanghai pilot free trade zone, all of these raised the degree of openness of RMB assets to foreign investors.

Though many people try to make profit by investing in the China’s equity market, however, the majority are disappointed by the poor performance these years. There is no doubt that China is still under drastic development and possesses a huge upside potential. But bear in mind that before stepping into any emerging countries, you have to concern about the risks pairing with the investment opportunities.

SLOWER GDP GROWTH

In the view of macroeconomics, the Gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reaching a new high every financial year, which was compatible with its condition as a developing country.

Chart 1: The total GDP and GDP growth of China

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China

Data as of 22/02/2013

In Chart 1, however, the GDP growth rate was under a downtrend since 2010 and dropped to 7.8% in 2012. It was lower than the forecast of 8% GDP growth for 2012.

Moreover, the GDP growth target had been lowered from 7.5% (11^th 5-year plan) to 7% (12^th 5-year plan) for 2011 to 2015. It showed that the China government also agreed that the economics growth cannot be sustained at a high level forever. Nonetheless, the growth of China was still indispensable.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE SURPLUS VS APPRECIATION

Although the labor cost of China was increasing from time to time, it was still relatively low comparing with the other developing countries such as India. Thus, the products from China were more cost-competitive and Chart 2 shows that China was enjoying a trade surplus in 2013. This situation existed decades ago and it is believed that it will continue in the future.

Chart 2: Export, Import and trade surplus of China for the year 2013

Source: National bureau of Statistics of China

Data as of 15/10/2013

Although China adopted a monetary policy that protected RMB from the attack of foreign capital by holding large amount of foreign reserve and limiting the openness of RMB, the continuous trade surplus had provided an enormous pressure on the appreciation of RMB. In chart 3, we can find out that right after the RMB Exchange Rate Regime Reform in 2005, the RMB started to appreciate drastically until 2007. From the middle of 2010, RMB appreciated steadily towards the day high of 6.082 (USD/CNY) in 2013. The appreciation seemed to be continued in long term and it would somehow hurt the export of China and worsen the China economy. Investors and exporters should hedge against the currency risks. Leaving the risk exploit would probably bring huge loss to their investment.

Chart 3: Trend of USD/CNY from 2005 - 2013

Did it mean that the appreciation bring no benefit to investor in China? The answer was definitely NOT! Assets such as cash, properties, stocks and bonds which were settled and accounted in RMB would enjoy the appreciation in their values with the RMB. For example, one who owned the RMB term deposit would be benefited from both the interest incurred and the appreciation in the currency. Made your investment decision wisely which you could turn a risk into profit.

RENEWABLE RESOURCES AND GREEN PRODUCTS

Despite the rapid growth of China, she had become the largest polluter in the world. Air pollution index in Beijing was always extremely high. There was only about 50 meters of vision in some serious cases. Heavy metal pollutants from industries also polluted the water and harmed the life of citizens. Pollution would hurt the productivity of workers and thus the GDP of a region. We needed to put an eye on the policy of China government towards pollution problem. If they will not do any intervention, the snowball effect must be triggered and definitely a risk for investors. Nevertheless, the China government was acknowledged the seriousness of the problem and raised a few policies and solutions in the 12^th five year plan such as the subsidies of renewable energy resources, pursued the use of environmental product and educated people about recycling. These gave a great opportunity for those green energy industry and environmental industry in the foreseeable future.

Counterfeit and unethical goods

Greater China was infamous for her counterfeit products. In every category of goods, it was not hard to find a counterfeit from the famous foreign brands. It had been a big problem for those foreign producers for many years. They had given hard pressure to the Chinese Government to handle the issues of counterfeit. Yet, some foreign countries may try to boycott products from China in the future which would harm the China manufacturing industry. Moreover, China’s tourism and manufacturing industry were also threatened by the unscrupulous manufacturers who were producing harmful and toxic food. If these problems didn’t rectify as soon as possible, it would be too risky to invest or even live in a country that makes up of low quality food and products.

Opportunities with risks

While opportunity is invulnerable to be pair up with risk, no matter how you manage your own portfolio, it is hard to make one with zero risk. Currently, the China market is full of risks. If you make thorough investment planning and appropriate research, these risks may one day turning to be your opportunities. Giving the undetermined potential of its market in the future, the Great China is always profitable and worthy to invest.

近況(1)

黎緊都要忙於考試同埋搵工, 所以都好少留意股票市場, 不過都會睇多d新聞, update自己, 讓自己不會脫節, 這是一個投資者最基本的行為......

知恥近乎勇

中學時期偶然學到嘅一種態度：「冇期望就冇失望」，在我過往十多年人生中一直相信這是自己處事最佳的態度，既然對自己嘅負出並無期望，即使事情落空了，又怎會對結果失望，內心好像也會因此好過點。

然而，最近這想法徹底改變了。

我明白保守一點的好處，但沒期望的話也未免太悲觀，那有人會甘願讓自己的努力付之流水，說自己甚麼不在乎的沒期望的其實都只是自欺欺人，以我為例，就已經騙了自己十多年。

說到尾，也是因為害怕失敗的心作祟，害怕失敗令對你有期望的人失望，害怕失敗後發覺自己負出很多卻一無所獲，害怕自己從此一蹶不振。

但是我學會了，失敗根本不可怕（我明白做起來是有難道的....），正如老人常言道：「可怕的不是失敗，而是失敗了卻無法再站起來。」

Come on James!不要再逃避了，好好的面對失敗，它給你實戰的經驗，亦給你檢視自己的機會，投資如是，做人也是，就是那麼簡單，知恥近乎勇!

投資與投機的迷思

作為一個自稱「投資者」嘅人, 一直希望自己同「投機」這二字盡量隔離, 不過投資股海一年, 發覺自己多多少少其實重複又重複咁投機, 哈哈。

根據MBA智庫百科對投資同投機二詞嘅定義:

投資（Investment）- 財產的累積以求在未來得到收益, 相較於投機而言，投資的時間段更長一些，更趨向是為了在未來一定時間段內獲得某種比較持續穩定的現金流收益，是未來收益的累積。

投機（speculative/speculation) - 投機不是要儘量減少損失，而是要最大限度地追求利潤。

把字紅起來, 原因是本人認為重點就在時間的長短, 在我心目中, 投資就是「利用某個獲利率大於50%的方法, 以長線達到正回報」, 任何不能滿足這條件的方法, 我也認為是投機。比方說是賭大小, 因為圍骰的關係, 開大或開小的或然率是48.61% ( <50%), 長遠來說, 假設每次投注金額一樣, 下注者嘅期望回報係負數。

要知道high return 背後總會帶來high risk, 投機就是這樣, 所以本人一直以自己比較年青為借口, 適量的進行投機, 以求回報最大化! 不過往往也會因此失利! 但我不是完全否定投機在我眼中是不應涉足的, 只是經過一年的投資生涯, 我明白到投機不能是你portfolio的主力, 隨著年齡, 家庭, 市場等不同因素的變化, 投資與投機的程度也要達到適到的平衡。

至於那個「利用某個獲利率大於50%的方法, 以長線達到正回報」的方法, 本人仍在尋覓中, 不過我相信三年內就可以完全整理好自己嘅投資理念, 夠長遠吧!

紀律

現實生活中既我其實都唔多會守紀律, 有時仲會think out of the box 同埋突破一d無謂既限制, 但係喺股票市場, 我就確信只有守紀律嘅人先可以穩穩地為自己既財富帶黎正回報。

以IPO為例, 我一直都採用自己最基本既strategy: 首日上市目標價為定價+10%, 止蝕價為-5%, 若果首日唔到價,將會另行操作, 而我亦會視乎上市當日氣氛,在開市前會適度調整目標同止蝕價。


今年我睇得上而且有抽既有以下4隻,亦都有採取相應策略:


1. 時計寶 (2033:HK)  上市日期: 2013/2/05 定價(白線): 1.35

目標價(上紅線): 1.49 (+10%)
止蝕價(下紅線): 1.28 (-5%)

時計寶 (2033:HK)

首日到價,賺10%, 如果hold到去依家就不堪入目......


2. 百勤油服 (2178:HK)  上市日期: 2013/3/06 定價: 3.28

目標價(紅線): 4.10 (+25%)
止蝕價: 3.00 (-10%)

百勤油服 (2178:HK) 

呢隻油田股係睇中當時中央對油服不斷湧出利好消息, 加上大市氣氛良好, 所以調整左目標價(更進取)同止蝕價(提高風險胃納), 首日就到價賺25%... 之後佢仲越升越有!不過唔好貪心!有賺就好!!



3. 銀河證券 (6881:HK)  上市日期: 2013/5/22 定價(白線): 5.30

目標價(上紅線): 5.83 (+10%)
止蝕價(下紅線): 5.03 (-5%)

銀河證券 (6881:HK)

推介過好多朋友一齊抽, 不過因為上市當日前後市況不佳, 所以我維持自己基本strategy, 首日上市到位就放左, 賺10%


4. 朗廷－SS (1270:HK)  上市日期: 2013/5/30 定價: 5.00

目標價: 5.50 (+10%)
止蝕價(下紅線): 4.75 (-5%)

朗廷－SS (1270:HK) 

一開市即跌破止蝕價....蝕5.X%, 如果冇堅持自己原則, 依家跌得仲多!




以上4個例子我跟住自己既strategy 去做, 你可能會問, 咁如果咁唔好彩4隻我都要止蝕,咁我個策略算唔算失敗呢?(負回報)

首先, 呢4隻都係我研究過幾個factors 而選出黎既, 所以自己對佢地係有信心 (點樣選就係後話), 咁萬一我分析錯誤,同埋上市當日市況不明朗呢? 我都會堅持止蝕, 因為IPO能夠參考既資料唔多, 所以我只會進行短(大部份)/中線既投資, 以確保自己既資產有良好既流動性(現金), 而我相信長遠黎講,遵守自己定既規則, 係可以達致正回報! 當然, 呢個係我既理念, 唔一定要個個同我一樣, 而我亦相信有好多人同我處理方法同見解都好唔同。

不加思索同埋唔遵守自己所相信既法規, 喺股場上, 同喺賭桌上玩大小其實係相差無幾。

i - bond 認購費用

其實呢篇真係冇乜時間準備 (呢排有d忙), 本來想證明埋i-bond既theoretical price 同埋佢接近0既風險, 遲d補番數啦!

雖然今次每人認講到大約兩手左右, 但都有一定吸引力!今次講講認購佢既費用

好! 前排有d師弟問: 喂~我冇本金wor,點認購呀

如果師弟知道ipo認購既system ,就應該聽過margin呢樣野, 就以HSBC為例:

Loan interest rate

1.8% p.a.

Maximum % of total application amount HSBC can finance

90%

Subscription Period

04 June 2013 09:00 to 13 June 2013 14:00

Issue Date

24 June 2013

Minimum loan amount

HKD 50,000

Cut off for loan application

11 Jun 2013 6:00 p.m. or when the Bank's maximum loan limit has been reached.

假如我要申請6手 (i.e. 60,000), 做90% margin 即係問hsbc 借 $54,000 , 而你需要存放係bank acc. 既本金只係 $6,000, 而利息就會係 $54,000 * 1.8% *11/365 = $29.29

當然hsbc收費會比較高少少,

所以本人用左永豐(WF)去抽: 0利息, 100% margin, 交易費=3.68 意思即係我唔需要任何本金

而最後,假設我抽到兩手, 而首日上市ibond場外價格為 104.5

HSBC: Profit= 450*2 - 29.29 = 920.71
WF: Profit = 450*2 - 3.68 = 946.32

另外一提, 假若係WF真係中左兩手,24/6/2013 要準備$20,000, 如果唔係會收你三日息(因為T+2), 不過WF都係收多你10蚊.

只需要付出少許時間同埋十幾蚊, 就可以穩袋幾百蚊, 對於我地呢d窮等人家黎講, ibond不可不抽!

P.S. 作為新手, 應該睇清楚你所用既銀行/證券行既收費, 做個精明投資者!! (當然都要考慮service, bankruptcy risk, 等因素)

開張大吉!

熟識本人既朋友都知其實我係一個唔多鍾意睇書同作文既人，今次開個blog其實真係唔知可以維持幾耐！

好喇，冇理由第一個post就淨係潑自己冷水，講一講呢個blog開黎做乜呢~

目標有三：

１．　分享投資心得。（暫時我只投資港股，希望將來可以染指其他範疇。)
２．　把心得和經驗記下，好讓自己進行評估和修改，完善個人投資理念。
３．　抒發感情。

希望keep到at least 每周一篇啦!